Insurers urged to keep on their toes, despite muted 2026 hurricane forecast

Reinsurer Swiss Re is warning against complacency after Colorado State University (CSU) on Thursday forecasted a lower-than-average 2026 hurricane season.

CSU predicts 2026 will have 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes, all below the 20-year historical average.

The probability of a hurricane making landfall along the U.S. east coast, including Florida, is 15%, CSU says, down from the 20-year average of 21%.

That’s significant for Canada, since hurricanes along the U.S. east coast often recurve through the western Atlantic, putting Atlantic Canada at risk. The remnants of these tropical storms often bring a risk for flooding rains, high winds, and tornadoes as they move north across the border.

Last year, no hurricane-related tropical storms hit Atlantic Canada despite the forecast for an ‘above-normal’ hurricane season, with four to seven major hurricanes projected in 2025.

However, despite the lower risk for a major hurricane this year, CSU forecasters caution: “Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Thorough preparations should be made for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

Monica Ningen was previously Swiss Re’s representative in Canada. She is now CEO of property and casualty reinsurance for Swiss Re in the US. She noted Hurricane Andrew is a prime example of what can happen, despite the forecasts.

“Last season may have felt relatively quiet, and this forecast points in a similar direction, but we have to be very careful not to let that create complacency,” Ningen said in a statement following the CSU’s forecast. “It only takes one storm, in the wrong place at the wrong time, to define a season.

“Hurricane Andrew is a classic example, forming during what was otherwise a quiet year, yet ultimately becoming one of the most consequential loss events in our industry’s history. We’ve seen time and again that a single event can reshape both loss experience and market dynamics, regardless of how the season looks on paper.”

In 1992, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Hurricane Andrew was weakening as it approached southern Florida. Instead, it rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane before it hit Florida as a Category 4 storm with 270 km/h winds.

At the time, it caused estimated insured damages of US$15.5 billion and was directly linked to the insolvency of nine US insurance companies, according to a paper published by National Academies.

And so, Ningen highlights CSU’s caution about the forecast.

“According to today’s Colorado State University forecast, which is calling for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, it would be easy to interpret that as a signal to ease off,” Ningen says. “But in our business, averages can be misleading because they don’t capture impact….

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“We can’t control how many storms form, but we can control how ready we are. That includes practical steps like strengthening roofs, improving building standards, and making smart investments that may cost more upfront but save significantly in the long run.”

CSU is forecasting a quieter hurricane season primarily because of a potentially strong El Nino event in the Atlantic ocean during the summer and through the end of 2026.

“El Nino” refers to a 12-18-month period during which anomalously warm sea surface temperatures occur in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific. It’s often associated with a strong vertical wind shear, which is the measure of winds higher in the atmosphere.

“Tropical cyclones need relatively calm winds in order to develop and thrive,” as The Weather Network explains. “Increased wind shear can shred apart thunderstorms before they can take root, disrupting the development of a budding tropical system.”

David Gambrill

David has twice served as Canadian Underwriter’s senior editor, both from 2005 to 2012, and again from 2017 to the present.