When it comes to the federal government’s power to push through policies championed by Canada’s property and casualty insurance industry, don’t underestimate how tenuous the Liberal government’s majority is, speakers cautioned at the Insurance Institute of Canada’s CIP Society Symposium 2026, held in Toronto last Thursday.
“Are we going to see more [floor-crossers] to make that legislative agenda a little bit easier to pass through? Only time will tell,” said Evan Stubbings, director of government affairs at Desjardins Group. “But I think the reason it’s key is because we need to see this government move from ideation to execution.
“Because, over the last year…they have sort of been stuck in neutral. And they’ll only be able to switch that…once they have like the votes to do so.”
The Liberal government has a number of items on the agenda of interest to Canadian P&C professionals. A majority Liberal government suggests a stronger push to move on industry-endorsed projects.
For example, the federal government is working on establishing an earthquake insurance backstop, creating a flood insurance backstop, supporting climate-related risk and resilience projects, and curbing auto theft, among others.
After the federal election in April 2025, Insurance Bureau of Canada told Canadian Underwriter it was encouraged by the strength of the Liberals’ minority government.
“It’s good news to have a relatively stable government for a change,” Stewart told CU in an interview after the election. “Although it’s a minority, it’s a very strong minority, and we expect that we’re going to have, at least for the next two years, a stable and constructive Parliament, which certainly hasn’t been the case over the last few years.”
However, Stubbings said the “razor-thin” majority still needs about three more floor-crossers for the government to advance its policy agenda confidently.
On Apr. 13, 2026, the Liberal government won three byelections held in Scarborough Southwest (Ontario), University–Rosedale (Ontario), and Terrebonne (Quebec).
In addition, five opposition party members — four Conservative MPs and one NDP MP — have crossed the floor to join the Liberals since the Liberals’ minority win in the 2025 election.
The governing party now has 174 seats in Parliament. It needs 172 seats for a majority government.
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But with two more anticipated bylaws in the future, it’s quite possible the Liberal government’s majority may not be as strong as it is now, Stubbings cautioned.
He referenced media reports suggesting Liberal MP for North Vancouver, Jonathan Wilkinson, the former energy and natural resources minister, may resign to get a diplomatic post somewhere. And Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, the Liberal MP for Beaches-East York in Toronto, has reported an interest in resigning to run as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.
“That brings you back to 172 [seats],” said Stubbings. “Isn’t that fine? It’s still a majority.
“No, because the Speaker of the House is a Liberal, and the speaker, by custom, doesn’t actually get to vote on passing legislation unless it’s the event of a tie. So…once those two additional byelections come to fruition, as we expect them to, the Liberals won’t have a majority anymore, absent further floor-crossers. Which brings me back to the tenuous nature of that caucus.”
Stubbings noted the Liberal government’s tent includes some floor-crossers with opposing ideological views on some key issues issues, which makes the nature of the Liberals’ majority government tenuous.
“Are we actually going to see this legislative agenda advance, absent more floor-crossers?” Stubbings said. “I would say no.”
He added the caveat the Liberals would need three more floor-crossers to maintain its majority in the face of two potential resignations.