Flood watches, warnings, and outlooks remain in place across Ontario as the spring thaw continues. However, based on national 2026 Q1 results, natural catastrophe (NatCat) claim numbers are down.
“Only two Cats have been declared this year,” says Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction managing director Glenn McGillivray, “both small.”
Although the first quarter is generally pretty quiet for NatCats in Canada, even a slight drop is still good news. NatCat losses dropped in 2025 to around $2.4 billion after an historic $9.4 billion dollar high in 2024. Last year, however, still clocked in as the tenth most expensive year on record. In fact, according to CatIQ, 2025 losses ranked second overall in terms of catastrophes declared and in ice storm losses. The year also topped the list in declared fire catastrophes.
Q1 insights and outcomes
“Comparing Q1 this year to Q1 2025, the losses are 15% of last year,” says Laura Twidle, CEO at CatIQ. Twidle notes that while the first quarter of 2026 did bring a few thousand claims around common seasonal snow, freeze, thaw, and melt events, there were still fewer year-over-year NatCat events and claims.
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Intact Financial Corporation, parent company of Canada’s largest carrier, referred to 2026 Q1 Cat activity as “benign.” Executives on the company’s 2026 Q1 earnings call told investors first-quarter Cat losses were $141 million, driven primarily by winter storms and large property losses in the UK. Overall, including the company’s US and UK operations, Intact expects $1.2 billion of annual catastrophe losses in 2026, with about one-third of that expected in the second and third quarters.
Adjusters make similar observations.
“Overall activity has been relatively moderate so far this season,” says Christine Segaric, director of Cat response for ClaimsPro. Segaric says volumes are tracking slightly below last year and ClaimsPro has not seen a meaningful increase in claims related to recent weather events. “That said, it’s still early in the season, and we will continue to monitor conditions closely.”
McGillivray points out that the four record events in 2024 all happened within about six weeks and totally changed the complexion of the year in a very short time. As a case in point, he cites the Fort McMurray wildfire with $4 billion in insured loss. There is, he notes, also no final data in terms of the recent events in Northern Ontario. “It will take time to see how those events shake out.”
Melt events in Q2
Twidle notes the snow, freeze, thaw, and melt events so far this year are in similar locations witnessed at the same time last year. “We typically see [them] in Ontario and Quebec each winter,” she says. A spike in warm temperatures in late April drove a rapid thaw and elevated water levels at the start of Q2.
An Ottawa River rising led some residents in Gatineau, Quebec, to voluntarily evacuate last month, for example. At least 200 buildings flooded and a few hundred more were at risk. Quebec City also saw several road closures due to heavy rainfall.
Conversely, though since lifted, states of emergency were declared across parts of Northern Ontario during that same time. Ontario’s Flood Forecasting and Warning Program highlights the 19 districts impacted. As of May 7, only a few of those districts remained under flood warnings, including the Lake Nipissing Shoreline and some of its surrounding areas.
Based on declining water levels and projection data, Greater Sudbury lifted its State of Emergency on May 1 and moved into its recovery phase. The municipality’s Flood Waste Relief Program has also been initiated “to help support residential property owners affected by flooding who do not have flood insurance.”
While the industry awaits the claims numbers and claims costs associated with these events, Q1 results are still worth noting. Yes, the year can change in what McGillivray calls “the snap of a finger,” but for now, the industry can enjoy this seasonal win.