Societal polarization, geopolitical tension, and economic slowdown are all dominating risk professionals’ heat maps right now, but insurance leaders see a lot of concern about environmental risks looking 10 years ahead.
With the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East effectively shut down by naval blockades, a tenuous ceasefire in place in a war between the United States and Iran, and global energy prices escalating as a result, insurance leaders in Canada are noting the current pace of global crises is bewildering.
One insurance CFO joked with Canadian Underwriter at a recent conference that rare global risks — events that used to happen only once or twice in decades — now happen on a weekly, if not daily basis.
A former CEO of AIG in Canada, Lynn Oldfield, made a similar point in a recent keynote address at the Insurance Institute of Canada’s 2026 annual symposium in Toronto. She referenced a recent study by Global Risk Institute of 11,000 business leaders representing 116 economies around the world.
“What was the Number 1 takeaway when they amalgamated all that data and all those questions? Uncertainty. From every corner of the globe, in every possible way,” Oldfield said. “This is an unprecedented time….Why? It is characterized by so many risk files.
“But it’s not [just] that. It’s the pace, and the fact that they’re all happening at the same time. And that’s what’s really frustrating.”
Only 10% of business leaders in the GRI survey predicted a calm and stable global outlook over the next two to 10 years. Fifty-seven percent said it’s going to be turbulent or stormy.
And the environment, once a top political priority as of the Global Paris Agreement in 2015, seems to have fallen by the wayside, taking a back seat to other global risks.
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“Risks are spiraling in scale, intensity and velocity,” Oldfield said. “And I think it’s the velocity we’re feeling right now. Tech risks are growing unchecked. Societies are on edge, and environmental concerns, which is a big one for our industry, are being deprioritized.”
Oldfield showed a slide with “top risk concerns” over time.
Between 2020, and 2023, environmental risk dominated the minds of business leaders.
For example, in 2021, ‘climate action’ and ‘biodiversity’ were two of three top concerns out of five. And in 2022, three environmental risks rated among the Top 5 concerns, including climate action, extreme weather events and biodiversity. In 2023, the two environmental concerns listed are a ‘failure to mitigate climate change’ and ‘natural disasters.’
But between 2024 and 2026, only one of the top five concerns were environmental in nature, with technological concerns beginning to dominate, and polarization remaining a top societal risk. State-based armed conflict is a top political risk in 2025 and 2026.
“We know that green [colour-coded] risks matter to our business, and you will see throughout catastrophic weather events. It really matters to us.”
Over the longer term, out of 10 global risks identified, five environmental risks are of the greatest concern, including extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth’s systems — all ranked one through three out of 10 — followed by natural resource shortages (6) and pollution 10).
“Look at 10 years out, look at all that green,” said Oldfield. “Look at how worried business leaders are. That’s a lot of green, and that means we’ve got to get at it.”