How insurers can face real-world climate risks

It wasn’t your imagination, 2024 really was a climate risk turning point for insurers and reinsurers in Canada, panellists tell a session on global climate resilience at Insurance Bureau of Canada’s recent 2026 IBC InSight Summit.

“It kind of consolidated and brought to the forefront something that was happening over the years. And a lot of companies…were talking about this for many decades,” says Agis Kitsikis, market head for property and casualty reinsurance at Swiss Re. That ‘something’ is a trend toward multibillion dollar insured losses in Canada spurred by natural catastrophe (NatCat) events.

“This trend became really apparent in 2024,” he says. “Another key element to this is the ratio between losses that are climate related versus the peak risk of earthquake, given that we’re in Canada. [For] these secondary perils…the ratio of the contribution to this entire pool of loss moved from close to 30% in the first decade [of the 21^st Century] to 50% to 55% [in the] second decade, and now we’re close to 70%, 90% of losses coming from secondary peril.”

Risk on the ground

Bringing a client’s perspective to the discussion, Shashanka Suresh, director of sustainability and ESG at real estate developer Dream, says it’s getting harder for property developers and owners to ignore climate risk.

“In the Canadian context, the wildfires out West [have] been a little bit of a wake-up call. And even here in Toronto, wildfires in the northern part of the province have resulted in…smoky skies. That’s not something that we can ignore anymore,” he tells the conference.

“We are thinking about the value of our assets, but also the comfort of our tenants, because that becomes an important consideration for us….We’re sort of at an inflection point where climate risk is being talked about in different spheres.”

Commercial real estate firms have a close eye on how climate shifts will impact the value of certain properties, and how natural hazards directly impact real assets.

“But there’s some softer pieces that are [less tangible],” Suresh adds. “When Toronto had the extreme heat wave last summer, there were some stories of tenants legally going after their landlords because the [heating, ventilation and air conditioning] systems were not efficient enough to service them as tenants. And that’s a legal risk, that’s a reputational risk that we as real estate owners and operators need to be thinking about as an industry.”

In terms of planning, he says historical data is no longer adequate to determine risks to assets in various geographic regions.

“We’re now looking at probabilistic models, thinking through those different future scenarios [and] also looking at different time horizons,” Suresh says. “And the time horizons piece is interesting for real estate, because it can really help you strategize about your acquisitions and dispositions.”

Changing times

Looking at emerging data, Kitsikis says the key thing from an insurance and a reinsurance perspective is the underlying exposure. He notes companies’ concentration of exposure in NatCat-prone areas and economic drivers like inflation are combining to create significant cost issues.

“Forget about climate change,” he says. “If you have the same event happen today [that happened] 15 years ago, it would cost a lot more. And if you add the climate impact…it just amplifies that reality.”

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Suresh says he’s seen risk amplification firsthand when visiting buildings that were constructed to building codes in place 20 or 30 years ago. Today, they cannot withstand weather patterns that have emerged in certain regions.

“When [one building I looked at] was built up to code about 23 years ago, it was taking into consideration the precipitation patterns at the time, and even after two or three extreme rainfall events, we are noticing now that…the drainage systems are not effective enough to drain all the additional water that’s now being collected on the roofs, and even this water in front of the building,” he tells the conference.

“We need to think about how climate risks are evolving [and] the pace at which they’re evolving.”

Phil Porado

Phil, an award-winning journalist with over 30 years of experience in financial topics, has been managing editor of Canadian Underwriter for more than three years.